TAMPA - A major hurricane hitting the Texas coast, home to about a quarter of the nation's oil refining capacity, couldn't come at a worse time for fuel prices in the United States.

It's not clear exactly where along the Gulf Coast Hurricane Rita, which was upgraded Wednesday to a Category 5 storm, will strike. But if it makes landfall as expected in an area of Texas thick with oil rigs and refineries, analysts say the national and Florida economies could suffer a hard jolt.

Expect higher prices for gas, insurance, food, construction supplies -- and pretty much anything else, including a gallon of milk or this year's holiday gifts.

Many oil rigs, refineries and fuel shipping equipment are just restarting production after Hurricane Katrina pummeled the oil industry along the Louisiana-Mississippi coast. Fuel inventories were already low after a heavy summer driving season depleted supplies.

"Hurricane Katrina already clobbered the refining industry -- crude production, refining and pipelines," said Jake Bournazian, an economist with the Energy Information Administration in Washington. "If you get another hurricane that hits all three again, you could see gas prices jump a dollar."

Other energy analysts said gasoline prices in some states could temporarily hit $4 or $5 a gallon if the hurricane makes a direct hit on key refineries and shipping channels.

Much of the risk is the result of U.S. energy companies concentrating refining and distribution operations near the Texas coast over the past two decades. There are fewer, but larger, plants, Bournazian said. That has boosted production and lowered costs but also made supply lines more vulnerable to catastrophic disruptions from big storms.

The Houston area provides about 40 percent of the oil and gas supply for the Midwest and East Coast, including Florida, Bournazian said. For the nation as a whole, the area produces about 25 percent of the oil supply. It's also home to a number of large petrochemical and natural gas facilities.

The Economic Toll

Economist Tony Villamil, president the Washington Economic Group based in Coral Gables, said a hard hit by Rita would exacerbate the economic problems caused by Katrina: rising gas prices, sagging consumer confidence and a slowdown in productivity growth.

"It would certainly create a supply shock that would create a dip in economic activity," he said.

The Congressional Budget Office reported this month that Katrina will have a "significant but not overwhelming" effect on the national economy. Rita could slow the nation's economy even more, although a recession doesn't appear likely.

Villamil said damage from Rita could drive up construction costs in Florida, as rebuilding efforts afterward drive up demand and strain supplies for construction materials and labor. Construction materials are already in short supply in Florida, which is in the midst of a residential real estate boom and its own rebuilding after last year's hurricanes.

Property insurers, reeling from billions in anticipated claims from Katrina, may exit risky Gulf Coast markets or seek premium rate increases to cover heightened hurricane risk.

An increase in insurance premiums could cut into consumer spending on things such as clothes, food, travel and other necessities and discretionary items, Villamil said.

Evacuations And Gas Prices

Damage from Katrina and now the Rita evacuations have cut normal Gulf oil production of 1.5 million barrels a day roughly in half, according to the U.S. Minerals Management Service. Since Katrina evacuations began Aug. 26, the storms have cut more than 26 million barrels of oil production, or 4.7 percent of the Gulf's annual production, the agency said. In the meantime, prices for oil and gasoline are rising in anticipation of the storm.

"The market is reacting quite hysterically, and if Rita comes ashore near Texas City or the Houston Ship Channel, one might say it is reacting appropriately," said Tom Kloza, director of editorial content at the Oil Price Information Service.

BP PLC started closing parts of its massive Texas City refinery on Wednesday and expected to decide whether to shutter the entire facility later in the day, as Hurricane Rita spun across the Gulf of Mexico. Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Oil, ConocoPhillips Co. and others also continued to evacuate employees from many rigs and platforms.

Florida's gasoline supply is especially vulnerable to disruptions in the Gulf. Unlike other parts of the country that receive oil and gas by pipeline, Florida lacks local refining capacity and largely receives refined fuel from barges that embark from Gulf-area refineries.

Price increases could come within the next few days, Kloza said, and independent gas station chains will likely start having higher prices than major companies that have more bargaining power on the market.