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Tropical Storm Earl Follows Charley's Early Footsteps

Published: Aug 15, 2004

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TAMPA - Two more storms are churning through the tropics, one following a path hauntingly similar to a track Hurricane Charley took on its way toward Florida.

The other, Tropical Storm Danielle, probably will stay well at sea and follow a northerly curve in the Atlantic, Jack Beven, hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center, said Saturday. That's the fate of most storms that form as far out in the ocean as Danielle did Friday.

Tropical Storm Earl, however, east of the Windward Islands on Saturday, is one for people in Florida to watch, especially as it moves through the Caribbean Sea in the footprints of Charley.

Forecasters expect Earl to move close to Jamaica and toward the western end of Cuba by Wednesday with winds of 92 mph. It should grow into a hurricane by Monday afternoon.

Forecasts of a hurricane's position five days away can be off by 375 miles in any direction. That could put Earl anywhere from the Florida Keys to the Yucatan Peninsula.

Meteorologists are fairly sure Earl will continue on the present path for the next three or four days, Beven said. After that, the models forecasters use to help predict a hurricane's path split.

Some keep Earl away from Florida. Some have Earl ``repeating a Charley track,'' Beven said.

Today, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will fly through Earl.

Several days from now, a jet will explore the atmosphere around the storm to give the models more information about conditions that will influence its track.

``People should keep an eye on it, but it's not time to panic,'' Beven said.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (352) 544- 5214.



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